Company Analysis & Recent News
PSXP
12/3/18
Notes:
Instead of EPS, MLP earnings are called EPU (earnings per unit) and
dividends are called 'distributions.'
CF Payout Ratio: Annualized distributions
% of forecast fiscal year cash flow.
CFU: cash flow per unit.
Distributable cash flow (DCF) or cash available for distribution (CAD):
cash from operations available to pay distributions.
Div/EPU ratio: next 12 month's forecast
distributions divided by forecast EPU.
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Sold 10/1/18
Phillips
66 Partners
Rating: SELL
We are advising selling Phillips 66 Partners.
Please see write-up at top for details.
In October, Phillips 66 Partners raised its quarterly distribution by 5% to $0.792
per unit, which was 33% above its year-ago payout.
Forecast FY 12/2018 EPU Growth: 47%
FY 2019 P/E: 13
Background
A July 2013 IPO, Phillips 66
Partners was formed by oil industry giant Phillips 66 to develop, own
and operate primarily fee-based crude oil, refined petroleum products
(e.g. gasoline) and natural gas liquids (NGL) pipelines, terminals and
storage facilities.
Quarterly Reports
September '18: EPU $1.10, up 115% vs.
year-ago. Revenues up 5% to $384 million. Distributable cash flow $1.08
per unit vs. year-ago $0.72 (up 50%). In July, distribution up 5% to
$0.752 per unit.
June '18: EPU $0.94, up 54%. Revenues up 28% to $354 million. Distributable cash flow $1.04
per unit vs. year-ago $0.83. In April, distribution up 5% to $0.714.
March '18 EPU: $0.87, up 45%. Revenues
up 52% to $355 million. Distributable cash flow $1.00 per unit vs.
$0.77. Pipeline volumes down 3% to 1.745
million barrels per day (mbpd). Terminal storage volumes flat at 1.166 mbpd. Average pipeline
revenue up 3% to $0.65 per barrel. Average
terminal storage revenue up 6% to $0.37 per barrel.
In January, distribution
up 5% to $0.678,
up 22% vs. year-ago.
December '17 EPU:
$0.83, up 28%. Revenues
up 45% to $331 million. Distributable cash flow up 8% to $0.90 per unit.
Pipeline volumes flat at 1.970 million barrels per day (mbpd). Terminal storage volumes up 34% to
1.970 mbpd. Average pipeline revenue up 5% to $0.63 per barrel. Average
terminal storage revenue up 3% to $0.41 per barrel.
In October, distribution
up 5% to $0.646.
September '17 EPU: $0.51, down $0.06.
Revenues up 70% to $299 million. Distributable cash flow $0.72 per unit
vs. $0.66. Pipeline volumes up 120% to 1.935
million barrels per day (mbpd).
Terminal storage volumes up 96% to 1.935 mbpd.
Average pipeline revenue up 37% to $0.63 per barrel. Average terminal
storage revenue up 5% to $0.41 per barrel. Agreed to pay $1.7 billion,
plus assume $625 million of debt, to acquire general partners (Phillips 66, Inc.) 25%
interest in
the Bakken Pipeline, which consists of 1,926 pipeline miles and
520,000 barrels per day of crude oil capacity, and 100% interest in Merey Sweeny, the owner of coke processing units at the Phillips
66 Sweeny Refinery.
Sold 6.3 million common units at $47.59
per unit.
In July, distribution
up 5% to $0.615.
June '17 EPU:
$0.61, up 20%. Revenues
up 68% to $234 million. Distributable cash flow $0.83/unit vs. year-ago
$0.84. Pipeline volumes up 114% to 1.915 million barrels per day (mbpd).
Terminal storage volumes up 32% to 1.334 mbpd.
Average pipeline revenue up 0% to $0.61 per barrel. Average terminal
storage revenue up 5% to $0.42 per barrel.
In April, Phillips raised its quarterly distribution by 5% to $0.586.
March '17 EPU: $0.60 per unit, up 36%.
Revenues up 127% to $234 million. Distributable cash flow $124 million
vs. $64.1 million. Pipeline volumes up
134% vs. year-ago to 1.875 mbpd. Terminal storage
volumes up 49% to 1.383 mbpd. Average pipeline
revenue up 37% to $0.63 per barrel. Average terminal storage revenue up
3% to $0.41 per barrel.
In January, distribution up 5% to
$0.558.
December '16 EPU: $0.65, up 14%.
Revenues up 3% to $102.7 million. Distributable cash flow up 27% to $130
million ($0.83/unit). Pipeline volumes up 144%
to 1.968 mbpd. Terminal storage volumes up 62% to
1.470 mbpd. Average pipeline revenue up 18% to $0.60
per barrel. Average terminal storage revenue down 5% to $0.40 per
barrel. In October, distribution up 5% to $0.531. Agreed to pay general partner, Phillips 66, $1.3
billion to acquire seven crude oil and refined products pipeline systems
and associated assets in Montana, New Jersey, Oklahoma, and Texas.
Said acquisitions would immediately begin adding to its cash flow.
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